Analyst predictions

Cowen and Company's 2009 and 2010 US forecasts, made January 2009

[1]

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The company now expects Sony will sell 4 million <nowiki>[</nowiki>PS3] units in the US during 2009, down 2.25 million from previous estimates of 6.25 million units.

Cowen does expect sales will pick up marginally in 2010, with 4.5 million units sold in the region.

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In contrast, Cowen has upped its sales expectations for Nintendo's Wii, expecting the console to sell another two million units in 2009 and 2010, to 8 million and 6 million units, respectively.

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Cowan also expects Microsoft's Xbox 360 will widen its lead over the PlayStation 3 this year, with 4.25 million units sold, although expectations for 2010 remain the same at 4 million units.

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Expectations for DS sales in the US have been adjusted upwards, to 7.5 million this year, and 6.5 million in 2010, while PSP sales have been dropped slightly to 3.5 million units in 2009, and 3.25 million in 2010.

IDC's Billy Pidgeon's predictions for worldwide LTD install bases through 2012, made earlier than mid-June 2008

[2]

I attempted to round to the nearest million based on the image given.

X360

2008: 27 M

2009: 32 M

2010: 36 M

2011: 38 M

2012: 40 M

PS3

2008: 23 M

2009: 41 M

2010: 60 M

2011: 87 M

2012: 107 M

Wii

2008: 42 M

2009: 70 M

2010: 90 M

2011: 99 M

2012: 104 M

Activision's predictions for North America 2008, made May 2008

[3]

He said that Activision expects hardware increases in North America during calendar year 2008 of 2-3 million units for PS2, 3-4 million units for PS3, 4-5 million units for Xbox 360, and 7 million units for the Wii. He added that Activision expects handhelds to grow by 11 million units but did not break that estimate down into PSP versus DS sales.

IDG's market sector predictions for US/EU 2008 and 2009, made April 2008

[4]

(First figure, 2008; second figure, 2009)

HARDWARE UNITS

US handheld: 12.5m 10.7m

US console: 20.1m 17.2m

US Total: 32.6m 27.9m

Euro handheld: 14.6 10.7m

Euro console: 14.8m 13.1m

Euro total: 29.4m 23.8m

SOFTWARE UNITS

US Handheld: 80.1m 68.7m

US Console: 174.1m 181.0m

US Total: 254.2m 249.7m

Euro Handheld: 84m 75.5m

Euro Console: 107m 106.9m

Euro total: 191m 182.4m

Lazard Capital Markets's Colin Sebastian's predictions for US 2008, made April 2008

[5]

In a Monday investor note, Colin Sebastian with Lazard Capital Markets raised 2008 US Wii sales estimates from 6.5 million to 8.5 million units, and PS3 sales from 4.5 million to 4.7 million.

He also boosted 2008 DS estimates from 5.9 million to 6.4 million and PS2 from 2.5 million to 3 million. He reiterated his Xbox 360 sales forecast of 4.8 million during the year and PSP sales of 3.8 million.

Michael Pachter's worldwide predictions for 2008, made April 2008

[6]

“I expect US and European Wii sales of 15 million units this year, expect sales of 360 to be 6.8 million, and expect sales of PS3 to be 10.3 million,” he said. “I expect Japanese sales of 3.5 million Wiis, 2.8 million PS3 and 300,000 Xbox 360s.”

Daniel Ernst of Hudson Square Research predicts fiscal 2009 (April 2008 - March 2009), made April 2008

[7]

For fiscal year 2008 (which ended this March), Sony sold 9 million PS3 units globally, Microsoft sold 9.5 million Xbox 360s and Nintendo sold 18.5 million Wiis. For fiscal year 2009 (ending next March), Ernst forecasts that Microsoft will sell 11.2 million units of the Xbox 360 worldwide, Sony will sell 12.5 million PS3s and Nintendo will sell 23 million Wiis.

iSuppli's worldwide predictions through the end of 2011, made February 2008

[8]

That said, the Wii is expected to remain a dominant force in 2008 with an installed base of 30.2 million units worldwide (up from 18 million in '07). This will put the Wii ahead of the Xbox 360's projected installed base of 25.7 million units.

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By 2011, iSuppli forecasts that Sony's system will come out ahead with 38.4 million units sold worldwide, just slightly ahead of the Wii at 37.7 million units. The Xbox 360 is expected to reach 32.3 million units.

Activision's NA predictions for 2008, made February 2008

[9]

The ranges given were 4-5 million units sold for Xbox 360 and 3-4 million for PS3. Still, Activision predicts the Wii to outsell both of its competitors by a substantial margin with greater than 6 million units shifted at retail. Rounding out the projections are the PS2 at 2-3 million in sales and all handhelds combined with over 10 million in sales.

EA's NA/EU predictions for 2008, made February 2008

[10]

It seems that this shift in fortunes is going to be down to Europe. According to EA’s predictions, 5-6 million PS3s will be sold in Europe this year, compared to 6.5-7.5 million Wiis and 1.5-2.5 million 360s.

In North America, EA reckons the both the 360 and PS3 will sell around 4.5-5.5 million units each, while the Wii will sell around a million more.

More importantly, with EA forecasting that only 3.9-4.9 million PS2s will be sold this year in the West

Screen Digest, numbers taken from an image of worldwide hardware install bases through the end of 2011, made December 2007

[11]

After 2007

Wii: 21.0 m

X360: 15.5 m

PS3: 8.5 m

After 2008

Wii: 37.5 m (+16.5)

PS3: 24.0 m (+15.5)

X360: 23.5 m (+8.0)

After 2009

Wii: 52.0 m (+14.5)

PS3: 42.5 m (+18.5)

X360: 30.5 m (+7.0)

After 2010

Wii: 63.5 m (+11.5)

PS3: 58.0 m (+15.5)

X360: 36.0 m (+5.5)

After 2011

Wii: 73.5 m (+10.0)

PS3: 71.0 m (+13.0)

X360: 40.5 m (+4.5)

Some thoughts on the result of a $400 PS3, made October 2007

[12]

“We should expect sustainable sales of 225,000 units <nowiki>[</nowiki>for non-holiday months],” Pachter says. “November is typically double the other months, so expect around 450,000 units, and December is typically double November, so expect around 900,000 units.”

Billy Pidgeon with IDC isn’t as confident in PS3 sales. “I don't expect major uptake on PS3 this holiday,” he says. “Xbox 360 needs to make the most of this holiday and build up the base, but Nintendo could move more Wii consoles than the others combined.”

Lazard Capital Markets’ Colin Sebastian believes that there will be a “meaningful up-tick” in sales once a cheaper 40GB model is introduced, but a less-expensive console from Sony will have to be backed by a stronger third-party developer strategy.

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Janco Partners’ Mike Hickey says Sony can only do what it can with what it’s got this holiday. “We don’t think there is really anything Sony can do beyond a dramatic price cut and a verbal outcry for PS3 Blu-ray buyers to turn the tide of their dismal holiday sales outlook relative to the Xbox 360,” he says rather bleakly. “<nowiki>[</nowiki>From a software standpoint,] consumers seem to be struggling with the ‘why pay considerably more for considerably less?’ purchasing dilemma. We are increasingly less confident Sony will show anything remotely remarkable on the PS3 for this holiday.”

DFC's slightly less vague set of forecasts, made September 2007; probably just another article based on the same info

[13]

Of course none of this answers the key question: which console system will win? DFC Intelligence publishes its forecast in multiple scenarios and looks at the best and worst case for each console system. Here are some brief highlights from our latest forecasts for the console system.

1. DFC forecasts that the Wii will sell the most hardware units in Japan and could be the overall worldwide winner. However, the PlayStation 3 could be a strong second. Furthermore, by 2012 the PlayStation 3 may actually lead in software revenue even though the Wii has sold more units.

2. Under DFC's best case scenario for the Xbox 360, the system is in a virtual tie with both the Wii and the PlayStation 3. However, unless the Xbox 360 can kick it into gear in the fourth quarter and through 2008, the system will probably finish in a fairly distant third. A big challenge for the Xbox 360 is building a base outside North America.

3. The PlayStation 3 is looking to make a strong play for 2009 and beyond. For software revenue, the PlayStation 3 looks to be a solid platform for the 2009-2012 time period.

DFC's very vague set of forecasts, made September 2007

[14]

The portable games market is also expected to continue to increase, with DFC analyst David Cole saying: “Revenue from portable game software has more than doubled in recent years and we think that the Nintendo DS could eventually become the best selling game system ever in five years”.

The reports are less unequivocal when it comes to the home console market, offering three different scenarios based on different performances for the Xbox 360, Wii and PlayStation 3. Overall, cumulative worldwide sales for the three systems are predicted to be between 180 and 210 million units by 2012 – more than the total during the PlayStation 2 era.

Controversially, DFC has raised its forecasts for the Wii and the PlayStation 3 in all three scenarios and lowered its forecasts for the Xbox 360. "The Xbox 360 will need to build a strong base outside North America to avoid being in a fairly distant third," says Cole, while predicting that the Wii will remain the strongest system through at least 2008. The PlayStation 3 is not expected to come into its own until 2009, according to the reports.

IDC worldwide shipment prediction for consoles, but I'm not sure if it's January-December or April-March year being talked about, made April 2007

[15]

Researcher IDC predicts Nintendo will ship 16.1 million players this year, outpacing Microsoft's 9.87 million Xbox 360s and Sony's 9.1 million PlayStation 3s. Wii game sales will total $2.2 billion, said Framingham, Massachusetts-based IDC.

IDC's Billy Pidgeon, Wii supply prediction, made April 2007

[16]

“I believe the Wii will continue strong growth although supply continues to be a problem,” Pidgeon said. “I’d like to see Wii hardware shipping in larger quantities or mass market consumers may cool on it. Having said that, I don’t believe supply will meet demand for the Wii until 2009.

A.G. Edwards’ Bill Kreher, US marketshare through 2009

[17]

In this Next-Gen interview, he pegs the Xbox 360 to lead the US market through 2009 with 38 percent market share, followed by the Wii and PS3 with 34 and 28 percent respectively.

IDC (International Data Corp), worldwide sales through 2008 plus vague 2011 statement, made February 2007

[18]

Microsoft’s Xbox 360 installed base of consoles sold is expected to grow from 10 million in 2006 to 19.8 million by the end of 2007 and 30.4 million by the end of 2008. The PS 3 suffered from launch problems but IDC expects it and all of the consoles to be successful. The PS 3 is expected to grow to 11.7 million by the end of 2007 and 24.5 million by the end of 2008. The Wii is expected to hit 13.3 million by the end of 2007 and 32.1 million by the en dof 2008. Between those three platforms, the market share in 2008 comes out to 35 percent for Microsoft, 28 percent for Sony, and 37 percent for Nintendo.

So there you have a prediction. Wii is first by the end of 2008, Microsoft is No. 2, and Sony is No. 3. That’s now it all ends, of course, but it’s a big difference from the last generation. By the end of 2011, Sony ends up on top.

Screen Digest, console marketshares through 2010, made February 2007

[19]

[20]

2010 Console Market Shares

'''Japan'''

PS3: 64%

Wii: 26%

X360: 10%

'''USA'''

X360: 42%

PS3: 38%

Wii: 20%

'''W Europe, Australia, NZ'''

PS3: 43%

X360: 37%

Wii: 20%

Merrill Lynch, Wii household penetration in US/Japan through 2011, made February 2007

[21]

Now Merrill Lynch analyst Yoshiyuki Kinoshita is forecasting that by the year 2011, nearly 30 percent of all U.S. households will own a Wii. In Japan, Kinoshita believes that number will climb even higher, reaching a third of Japanese households.

SFG Research, North American and worldwide hardware estimates through 2010, made January 2007

[22]

As the numbers given are cumulative, I'm putting in parentheses what just that year would be.

The cumulative NORTH AMERICAN sales for each platform are as follows:

Xbox 360

2006: 6.0m

2007: 12.7m (6.7m)

2008: 19.5m (6.8m)

2009: 24.9m (5.4m)

2010:  29.4m (4.5m)

PlayStation 3

2006: 0.5m

2007: 7.6m (7.1m)

2008: 13.8m (6.2m)

2009: 19.5m (5.7m)

2010:  24.2m (4.7m)

Nintendo Wii

2006: 2.0m

2007: 5.3m (3.3m)

2008: 8.6m (3.3m)

2009: 11.4m (2.8m)

2010:  13.5m (2.1m)

The cumulative WORLDWIDE sales for each platform are as follows:

Sony PlayStation 3

2006: 1.0m

2007: 19.5m (18.5m)

2008: 35.5m (16.0m)

2009: 50m (14.5m)

2010: 62m (12m)

Xbox 360

2006: 10m

2007:  20.5m (10.5m)

2008: 30.5m (10.0m)

2009: 39m (8.5m)

2010: 46m (7.0m)

Nintendo Wii

2006: 4.0M

2007: 10.5m (6.5m)

2008: 16.5m (6.0m)

2009:  21.5m (5.0m)

2010: 25.0m (3.5m)

Research and Markets, worldwide sales overview, made January 2007.  Fuller details only if you pay.

[23]

Highlights of this title:

Key drivers are spurring the adoption of video games both online and offline. Broadband penetration is prompting the consumption of online material and the use of online social media. Demographics are also shifting with the average gamer being around 33 years old.

The PlayStation 3, Wii and Xbox 360, dubbed the next generation of consoles, each hold a unique position with regard to console offerings. While Sony and Microsoft aim towards increased functionality as a key driver for adoption, Nintendo look for innovative game play and the elusive fun factor.

The Sony PlayStation 3 is expected to win the console war in the long term with an install base of around 75 million globally by 2010. The console is not expected to dominate as much as its predecessor, the PS2, due to late launch issues in the PAL region and the early lead of Microsofts Xbox 360.

Merrill Lynch, regional and worldwide end share predictions, made November 2006

[24]

"The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360, which is the leader in North America, the world’s biggest market," said Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, research analyst for Merrill Lynch.

"We forecast respective market shares at end-FY3/11 of Xbox 360 <nowiki>[</nowiki>at] 39 percent, PS3 <nowiki>[</nowiki>at] 34 percent and Wii <nowiki>[</nowiki>at] 27 percent, thus overturning Sony’s domination of the market with its PS2-based share of 69 percent, and doubling Microsoft and Nintendo’s respective market shares."

The firm further predicts that in Japan, Sony will take the lead with a 57 percent market share, while Nintendo will take the bulk of the rest at 39 percent of the market. Figures for Xbox were not supplied.

In North America, Microsoft will hold the lead with 50 percent of while Sony and Nintendo will follow with 27 and 23 percent, respectively.

IDG (International Development Group), North American yearly sales through 2010, made October 2006

[25]

X360

'''2006''' 4.9 Million / 5.6 million

'''2007''' 6 Million / 11.6 million

'''2008''' 5.3 million / 16.9 million

'''2009''' 4.1 million / 21.1 million

'''2010''' 2.8 million / 23.9 million

PS3

'''2006''' 0.9 Million / 0.9 million

'''2007''' 5.6 million / 6.5 million

'''2008''' 6.3 million / 12.7 million

'''2009''' 5.6 million / 18.4 million

'''2010''' 5.2 million / 23.5 million

Wii

'''2006''' 1.1 Million / 1.1 million

'''2007''' 3.4 million / 4.5 million

'''2008''' 3.9 million / 8.4 million

'''2009''' 3.1 million / 11.4 million

'''2010''' 2.2 million / 13.6 million

Yankee group, end NA figures, made August 2006

[26]

The group predicts that the PS3 will capture 44 percent of cumulative console sales in North America by 2011, with 30 million units sold. Microsoft is expected to sell nearly 27 million units, taking up 40 percent of the market, while the Wii is forecasted to sell a little over 11 million units, accounting for just 16 percent of the market.

Nomura Securities, LTD through 2011, made July 2006

[27]

Yuta Sakurai, an analyst at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, says PS3 will sell 71 million units by 2011 compared with an estimated 40 million units for Wii.

In-Stat, presumably worldwide end percentages, made March 2006

[28], by way of Vieo

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 20, 2006--Sony will continue its domination of the video console market through 2010, though its lead will likely shrink due to stronger competition from Microsoft and Nintendo, reports In-Stat (http://www.in-stat.com). Through 2010, the Sony PS3 will account for just over 50% of the installed base of next-generation consoles, while the Microsoft Xbox 360 will have 28.6%, and the Nintendo Revolution will have 21.2%, the high-tech market research firm says.

"Microsoft will outship Nintendo in the next generation of consoles due to its head start in launching, its strength in the North American market, and its appeal to older gamers, a demographic that seems to widen with each new generation of consoles," said Brian O'Rourke, In-Stat analyst.

Piper Jaffray, US 2006 hardware estimates, made March 2006.

[29], by way of sonycowboy

Here's a estimate by Piper Jaffray for 2006, along with last years numbers:

System Estimate (LY)

1) PS2 4.5M (5.5M)

2) Xbox 0.75M (2.25M)

3) GCN 0.5 (1.87M)

4) 360 5M (0.6M)

5) PS3 0.75M (---)

6) Rev 0.5M (---)

7,8) GBA / DS 5.5M ( 4.2M / 2.6M) (Estimate is a combined total)

9) PSP 4.5M (3.7M)

Citigroup, 2008 yearly and LTDs, made January 2006

[30]

A report released by Citigroup (C) on Jan. 16 predicts that Xbox 360 will hold its lead and edge out the PlayStation 3 in the U.S. at the peak of the next cycle, selling an estimated 8 million units in 2008 compared with 7.1 million PlayStation 3s in that year (for a grand total of 19.8 million since launch vs. 11 million, respectively). Citigroup expects Nintendo to have sold 3.9 million Revolution systems by 2008.

SIG, yearly/LTD through 2009, made January 2006

[31]

SIG has compared year-by-year sales and estimates for the first five years of each machine's life, using sell-in and factory shipments.  It points out that in its first year both PSP and DS managed around 13 million units each, with DS slightly ahead.

Year two cumulative stats give PSP 25 million over DS' 22 million. In Year Three the difference rises to ten million (38m to 28m). In Year Four, PSP's lead has stretched to 15 million and to 20 million by Year Five.

Strategy Analytics, worldwide LTD through 2012, made July 2005

The report predicts that Sony will sell 121.8 million PS3s worldwide through 2012. Sales of Xbox 360s are expected to reach 58.8 million and of Nintendo's Revolution nearly 18 million. Cumulative retail revenues for all consoles over this period will exceed $47bn.

Wedbush's Michael Pachter, percentages (worldwide? US?) through 2010/2011, made May 2005

[32]

in five years [it will look like this:]: Microsoft at 30-35 percent, Sony at 45-55 percent, and Nintendo at what's left.