Analyst predictions

IDC, vague worldwide marketshare through 2008, made February 2007

[1]

"IDC believes hardware shipments of Nintendo's Wii will capture a little more than a third of the worldwide market by 2008, rising slightly above Sony's PS3 and Microsoft's Xbox 360,"

Screen Digest, console marketshares through 2010, made February 2007

[2]

[3]

2010 Console Market Shares

'''Japan'''

PS3: 64%

Wii: 26%

X360: 10%

'''USA'''

X360: 42%

PS3: 38%

Wii: 20%

'''W Europe, Australia, NZ'''

PS3: 43%

X360: 37%

Wii: 20%

Merrill Lynch, Wii household penetration in US/Japan through 2011, made February 2007

[4]

Now Merrill Lynch analyst Yoshiyuki Kinoshita is forecasting that by the year 2011, nearly 30 percent of all U.S. households will own a Wii. In Japan, Kinoshita believes that number will climb even higher, reaching a third of Japanese households.

SFG Research, North American and worldwide hardware estimates through 2010, made January 2007

[5]

As the numbers given are cumulative, I'm putting in parentheses what just that year would be.

The cumulative NORTH AMERICAN sales for each platform are as follows:

Xbox 360

2006: 6.0m

2007: 12.7m (6.7m)

2008: 19.5m (6.8m)

2009: 24.9m (5.4m)

2010:  29.4m (4.5m)

PlayStation 3

2006: 0.5m

2007: 7.6m (7.1m)

2008: 13.8m (6.2m)

2009: 19.5m (5.7m)

2010:  24.2m (4.7m)

Nintendo Wii

2006: 2.0m

2007: 5.3m (3.3m)

2008: 8.6m (3.3m)

2009: 11.4m (2.8m)

2010:  13.5m (2.1m)

The cumulative WORLDWIDE sales for each platform are as follows:

Sony PlayStation 3

2006: 1.0m

2007: 19.5m (18.5m)

2008: 35.5m (16.0m)

2009: 50m (14.5m)

2010: 62m (12m)

Xbox 360

2006: 10m

2007:  20.5m (10.5m)

2008: 30.5m (10.0m)

2009: 39m (8.5m)

2010: 46m (7.0m)

Nintendo Wii

2006: 4.0M

2007: 10.5m (6.5m)

2008: 16.5m (6.0m)

2009:  21.5m (5.0m)

2010: 25.0m (3.5m)

Research and Markets, worldwide sales overview, made January 2007.  Fuller details only if you pay.

[6]

Highlights of this title:

Key drivers are spurring the adoption of video games both online and offline. Broadband penetration is prompting the consumption of online material and the use of online social media. Demographics are also shifting with the average gamer being around 33 years old.

The PlayStation 3, Wii and Xbox 360, dubbed the next generation of consoles, each hold a unique position with regard to console offerings. While Sony and Microsoft aim towards increased functionality as a key driver for adoption, Nintendo look for innovative game play and the elusive fun factor.

The Sony PlayStation 3 is expected to win the console war in the long term with an install base of around 75 million globally by 2010. The console is not expected to dominate as much as its predecessor, the PS2, due to late launch issues in the PAL region and the early lead of Microsofts Xbox 360.

Merrill Lynch, regional and worldwide end share predictions, made November 2006

[7]

"The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360, which is the leader in North America, the world’s biggest market," said Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, research analyst for Merrill Lynch.

"We forecast respective market shares at end-FY3/11 of Xbox 360 <nowiki>[</nowiki>at] 39 percent, PS3 <nowiki>[</nowiki>at] 34 percent and Wii <nowiki>[</nowiki>at] 27 percent, thus overturning Sony’s domination of the market with its PS2-based share of 69 percent, and doubling Microsoft and Nintendo’s respective market shares."

The firm further predicts that in Japan, Sony will take the lead with a 57 percent market share, while Nintendo will take the bulk of the rest at 39 percent of the market. Figures for Xbox were not supplied.

In North America, Microsoft will hold the lead with 50 percent of while Sony and Nintendo will follow with 27 and 23 percent, respectively.

Yankee group, end NA figures, made August 2006

[8]

The group predicts that the PS3 will capture 44 percent of cumulative console sales in North America by 2011, with 30 million units sold. Microsoft is expected to sell nearly 27 million units, taking up 40 percent of the market, while the Wii is forecasted to sell a little over 11 million units, accounting for just 16 percent of the market.

Nomura Securities, LTD through 2011, made July 2006

[9]

Yuta Sakurai, an analyst at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, says PS3 will sell 71 million units by 2011 compared with an estimated 40 million units for Wii.

In-Stat, presumably worldwide end percentages, made March 2006

[10], by way of Vieo

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 20, 2006--Sony will continue its domination of the video console market through 2010, though its lead will likely shrink due to stronger competition from Microsoft and Nintendo, reports In-Stat (http://www.in-stat.com). Through 2010, the Sony PS3 will account for just over 50% of the installed base of next-generation consoles, while the Microsoft Xbox 360 will have 28.6%, and the Nintendo Revolution will have 21.2%, the high-tech market research firm says.

"Microsoft will outship Nintendo in the next generation of consoles due to its head start in launching, its strength in the North American market, and its appeal to older gamers, a demographic that seems to widen with each new generation of consoles," said Brian O'Rourke, In-Stat analyst.

Piper Jaffray, US 2006 hardware estimates, made March 2006.

[11], by way of sonycowboy

Here's a estimate by Piper Jaffray for 2006, along with last years numbers:

System Estimate (LY)

1) PS2 4.5M (5.5M)

2) Xbox 0.75M (2.25M)

3) GCN 0.5 (1.87M)

4) 360 5M (0.6M)

5) PS3 0.75M (---)

6) Rev 0.5M (---)

7,8) GBA / DS 5.5M ( 4.2M / 2.6M) (Estimate is a combined total)

9) PSP 4.5M (3.7M)

Citigroup, 2008 yearly and LTDs, made January 2006

[12]

A report released by Citigroup (C) on Jan. 16 predicts that Xbox 360 will hold its lead and edge out the PlayStation 3 in the U.S. at the peak of the next cycle, selling an estimated 8 million units in 2008 compared with 7.1 million PlayStation 3s in that year (for a grand total of 19.8 million since launch vs. 11 million, respectively). Citigroup expects Nintendo to have sold 3.9 million Revolution systems by 2008.

SIG, yearly/LTD through 2009, made January 2006

[13]

SIG has compared year-by-year sales and estimates for the first five years of each machine's life, using sell-in and factory shipments.  It points out that in its first year both PSP and DS managed around 13 million units each, with DS slightly ahead.

Year two cumulative stats give PSP 25 million over DS' 22 million. In Year Three the difference rises to ten million (38m to 28m). In Year Four, PSP's lead has stretched to 15 million and to 20 million by Year Five.