Analyst predictions - Switch 2

April 2, 2025 - Omdia
https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2025/apr/omdia-forecasts-nintendo-switch-2-will-sell-14point7-million-units-in-2025

Omdia forecasts show that Nintendo Switch 2 will sell nearly 15 million units globally in 2025, following its confirmed launch date of June 5. 

This would put the Switch 2 ahead of its predecessor by around 10% during its first calendar year on the market. Historical Omdia data reveals 13.4 million Nintendo Switch systems were sold in 2017, despite its earlier March release.

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However, although Switch 2 will exceed sales in the first year for the original Switch in 2017, Omdia believes that by year 4, Switch 2 will have sold fewer units than at its predecessor’s equivalent point. This is primarily down to the fourth year in the original Switch’s cycle coinciding with COVID lockdowns, which provided an enormous boost to the games industry.

(Line graph showing Switch 2 ahead of Switch 1 14.7m to 13.4m year 1, but behind 70m to 76m year 4, with the crossover happening in that 4th year.)

April 3, 2025 - Niko Partners
https://nikopartners.com/niko-partners-take-on-nintendo-switch-2-reveal/

We expect a return to growth in 2025 with the Nintendo Switch 2 shipments reaching 14.5 million units by the end of 2025. We remain cautious about whether Switch 2 can replicate Switch 1’s 150-million-unit sales, however.

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We currently forecast the console to sell-in just under 50 million units by December 31, 2027, and eventually reach 100 million, making it another success for Nintendo. However, we are not convinced the console will reach 100 million faster than Switch 1 at this point or go on to reach the 150-million-unit milestone.

April 7, 2025 - DFC Intelligence
https://www.dfcint.com/the-evolution-of-console-gaming-insights-on-the-switch-2s-debut/

Due to pricing concerns, DFC Intelligence is lowering its 2025 worldwide forecast for the Switch 2 from 17 million to 15 million units.  This will still make the Switch 2 the fastest selling console system ever.  Previous best-sellers including the original Switch, the PlayStation 4 and the Wii took at least a year to reach the 15 million unit level.

The lower forecast are directly related to supply and pricing.  With tariffs and uncertain pricing Nintendo may choose to scale back its manufacturing.  If prices increase substantially due to tariffs, a significant portion of prospective buyers are likely to hold back on a purchase until prices come down.  This situation is changing and will be closely monitored as DFC regularly updates its forecast throughout the year.

Long term, the upper limit for hardware sales for the Switch 2 is enormous.  The Switch 2 continues an established system and the ability to act as a portable device taps into Nintendo’s rich history of offering portable/console experiences.

In terms of overall hardware unit sales, Nintendo had its peak in 2007-2009 when the Wii and DS were available and would regularly sell a combined 40 to 50 million units a year.  As the Switch 2 matures it has the ability to capture an even larger share than the original Switch.

May 15, 2025 - DFC Intelligence
https://www.dfcint.com/nintendo-switch-2-launching-a-revitalization-for-video-game-industry/

DFC has increased its forecast for Switch 2 unit sales from 15 million to 16 million.  If manufacturing could meet demand, the Switch 2 could sell as many as 20 million units, but DFC considers this unlikely as Nintendo is expected to take a conservative approach to inventory.

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DFC forecasts that by the end of 2029 the Switch 2 will have sold over 100 million units making it the leading console system by a wide margin.  The next few years could see Nintendo for the first time becoming the primary partner for third-party game publishers.