Analyst predictions
DFC's very vague set of forecasts, made September 2007
The portable games market is also expected to continue to increase, with DFC analyst David Cole saying: “Revenue from portable game software has more than doubled in recent years and we think that the Nintendo DS could eventually become the best selling game system ever in five years”. The reports are less unequivocal when it comes to the home console market, offering three different scenarios based on different performances for the Xbox 360, Wii and PlayStation 3. Overall, cumulative worldwide sales for the three systems are predicted to be between 180 and 210 million units by 2012 – more than the total during the PlayStation 2 era. Controversially, DFC has raised its forecasts for the Wii and the PlayStation 3 in all three scenarios and lowered its forecasts for the Xbox 360. "The Xbox 360 will need to build a strong base outside North America to avoid being in a fairly distant third," says Cole, while predicting that the Wii will remain the strongest system through at least 2008. The PlayStation 3 is not expected to come into its own until 2009, according to the reports.
IDC worldwide shipment prediction for consoles, but I'm not sure if it's January-December or April-March year being talked about, made April 2007
Researcher IDC predicts Nintendo will ship 16.1 million players this year, outpacing Microsoft's 9.87 million Xbox 360s and Sony's 9.1 million PlayStation 3s. Wii game sales will total $2.2 billion, said Framingham, Massachusetts-based IDC.
IDC's Billy Pidgeon, Wii supply prediction, made April 2007
“I believe the Wii will continue strong growth although supply continues to be a problem,” Pidgeon said. “I’d like to see Wii hardware shipping in larger quantities or mass market consumers may cool on it. Having said that, I don’t believe supply will meet demand for the Wii until 2009.
A.G. Edwards’ Bill Kreher, US marketshare through 2009
In this Next-Gen interview, he pegs the Xbox 360 to lead the US market through 2009 with 38 percent market share, followed by the Wii and PS3 with 34 and 28 percent respectively.
IDC (International Data Corp), worldwide sales through 2008 plus vague 2011 statement, made February 2007
Microsoft’s Xbox 360 installed base of consoles sold is expected to grow from 10 million in 2006 to 19.8 million by the end of 2007 and 30.4 million by the end of 2008. The PS 3 suffered from launch problems but IDC expects it and all of the consoles to be successful. The PS 3 is expected to grow to 11.7 million by the end of 2007 and 24.5 million by the end of 2008. The Wii is expected to hit 13.3 million by the end of 2007 and 32.1 million by the en dof 2008. Between those three platforms, the market share in 2008 comes out to 35 percent for Microsoft, 28 percent for Sony, and 37 percent for Nintendo. So there you have a prediction. Wii is first by the end of 2008, Microsoft is No. 2, and Sony is No. 3. That’s now it all ends, of course, but it’s a big difference from the last generation. By the end of 2011, Sony ends up on top.
Screen Digest, console marketshares through 2010, made February 2007
2010 Console Market Shares '''Japan''' PS3: 64% Wii: 26% X360: 10% '''USA''' X360: 42% PS3: 38% Wii: 20% '''W Europe, Australia, NZ''' PS3: 43% X360: 37% Wii: 20%
Merrill Lynch, Wii household penetration in US/Japan through 2011, made February 2007
Now Merrill Lynch analyst Yoshiyuki Kinoshita is forecasting that by the year 2011, nearly 30 percent of all U.S. households will own a Wii. In Japan, Kinoshita believes that number will climb even higher, reaching a third of Japanese households.
SFG Research, North American and worldwide hardware estimates through 2010, made January 2007
As the numbers given are cumulative, I'm putting in parentheses what just that year would be.
The cumulative NORTH AMERICAN sales for each platform are as follows: Xbox 360 2006: 6.0m 2007: 12.7m (6.7m) 2008: 19.5m (6.8m) 2009: 24.9m (5.4m) 2010: 29.4m (4.5m) PlayStation 3 2006: 0.5m 2007: 7.6m (7.1m) 2008: 13.8m (6.2m) 2009: 19.5m (5.7m) 2010: 24.2m (4.7m) Nintendo Wii 2006: 2.0m 2007: 5.3m (3.3m) 2008: 8.6m (3.3m) 2009: 11.4m (2.8m) 2010: 13.5m (2.1m) The cumulative WORLDWIDE sales for each platform are as follows: Sony PlayStation 3 2006: 1.0m 2007: 19.5m (18.5m) 2008: 35.5m (16.0m) 2009: 50m (14.5m) 2010: 62m (12m) Xbox 360 2006: 10m 2007: 20.5m (10.5m) 2008: 30.5m (10.0m) 2009: 39m (8.5m) 2010: 46m (7.0m) Nintendo Wii 2006: 4.0M 2007: 10.5m (6.5m) 2008: 16.5m (6.0m) 2009: 21.5m (5.0m) 2010: 25.0m (3.5m)
Research and Markets, worldwide sales overview, made January 2007. Fuller details only if you pay.
Highlights of this title: Key drivers are spurring the adoption of video games both online and offline. Broadband penetration is prompting the consumption of online material and the use of online social media. Demographics are also shifting with the average gamer being around 33 years old. The PlayStation 3, Wii and Xbox 360, dubbed the next generation of consoles, each hold a unique position with regard to console offerings. While Sony and Microsoft aim towards increased functionality as a key driver for adoption, Nintendo look for innovative game play and the elusive fun factor. The Sony PlayStation 3 is expected to win the console war in the long term with an install base of around 75 million globally by 2010. The console is not expected to dominate as much as its predecessor, the PS2, due to late launch issues in the PAL region and the early lead of Microsofts Xbox 360.
Merrill Lynch, regional and worldwide end share predictions, made November 2006
"The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360, which is the leader in North America, the world’s biggest market," said Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, research analyst for Merrill Lynch. "We forecast respective market shares at end-FY3/11 of Xbox 360 <nowiki>[</nowiki>at] 39 percent, PS3 <nowiki>[</nowiki>at] 34 percent and Wii <nowiki>[</nowiki>at] 27 percent, thus overturning Sony’s domination of the market with its PS2-based share of 69 percent, and doubling Microsoft and Nintendo’s respective market shares." The firm further predicts that in Japan, Sony will take the lead with a 57 percent market share, while Nintendo will take the bulk of the rest at 39 percent of the market. Figures for Xbox were not supplied. In North America, Microsoft will hold the lead with 50 percent of while Sony and Nintendo will follow with 27 and 23 percent, respectively.
IDG (International Development Group), North American yearly sales through 2010, made October 2006
X360 '''2006''' 4.9 Million / 5.6 million '''2007''' 6 Million / 11.6 million '''2008''' 5.3 million / 16.9 million '''2009''' 4.1 million / 21.1 million '''2010''' 2.8 million / 23.9 million PS3 '''2006''' 0.9 Million / 0.9 million '''2007''' 5.6 million / 6.5 million '''2008''' 6.3 million / 12.7 million '''2009''' 5.6 million / 18.4 million '''2010''' 5.2 million / 23.5 million Wii '''2006''' 1.1 Million / 1.1 million '''2007''' 3.4 million / 4.5 million '''2008''' 3.9 million / 8.4 million '''2009''' 3.1 million / 11.4 million '''2010''' 2.2 million / 13.6 million
Yankee group, end NA figures, made August 2006
The group predicts that the PS3 will capture 44 percent of cumulative console sales in North America by 2011, with 30 million units sold. Microsoft is expected to sell nearly 27 million units, taking up 40 percent of the market, while the Wii is forecasted to sell a little over 11 million units, accounting for just 16 percent of the market.
Nomura Securities, LTD through 2011, made July 2006
Yuta Sakurai, an analyst at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, says PS3 will sell 71 million units by 2011 compared with an estimated 40 million units for Wii.
In-Stat, presumably worldwide end percentages, made March 2006
[15], by way of Vieo
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 20, 2006--Sony will continue its domination of the video console market through 2010, though its lead will likely shrink due to stronger competition from Microsoft and Nintendo, reports In-Stat (http://www.in-stat.com). Through 2010, the Sony PS3 will account for just over 50% of the installed base of next-generation consoles, while the Microsoft Xbox 360 will have 28.6%, and the Nintendo Revolution will have 21.2%, the high-tech market research firm says. "Microsoft will outship Nintendo in the next generation of consoles due to its head start in launching, its strength in the North American market, and its appeal to older gamers, a demographic that seems to widen with each new generation of consoles," said Brian O'Rourke, In-Stat analyst.
Piper Jaffray, US 2006 hardware estimates, made March 2006.
[16], by way of sonycowboy
Here's a estimate by Piper Jaffray for 2006, along with last years numbers: System Estimate (LY) 1) PS2 4.5M (5.5M) 2) Xbox 0.75M (2.25M) 3) GCN 0.5 (1.87M) 4) 360 5M (0.6M) 5) PS3 0.75M (---) 6) Rev 0.5M (---) 7,8) GBA / DS 5.5M ( 4.2M / 2.6M) (Estimate is a combined total) 9) PSP 4.5M (3.7M)
Citigroup, 2008 yearly and LTDs, made January 2006
A report released by Citigroup (C) on Jan. 16 predicts that Xbox 360 will hold its lead and edge out the PlayStation 3 in the U.S. at the peak of the next cycle, selling an estimated 8 million units in 2008 compared with 7.1 million PlayStation 3s in that year (for a grand total of 19.8 million since launch vs. 11 million, respectively). Citigroup expects Nintendo to have sold 3.9 million Revolution systems by 2008.
SIG, yearly/LTD through 2009, made January 2006
SIG has compared year-by-year sales and estimates for the first five years of each machine's life, using sell-in and factory shipments. It points out that in its first year both PSP and DS managed around 13 million units each, with DS slightly ahead. Year two cumulative stats give PSP 25 million over DS' 22 million. In Year Three the difference rises to ten million (38m to 28m). In Year Four, PSP's lead has stretched to 15 million and to 20 million by Year Five.
Strategy Analytics, worldwide LTD through 2012, made July 2005
The report predicts that Sony will sell 121.8 million PS3s worldwide through 2012. Sales of Xbox 360s are expected to reach 58.8 million and of Nintendo's Revolution nearly 18 million. Cumulative retail revenues for all consoles over this period will exceed $47bn.
Wedbush's Michael Pachter, percentages (worldwide? US?) through 2010/2011, made May 2005
in five years [it will look like this:]: Microsoft at 30-35 percent, Sony at 45-55 percent, and Nintendo at what's left.